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Preflop: ATo is too weak to raise with.


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When its folded to you in the CO, ATo is practically a monster. I certainly hope you aren't advocating folding here and if you are gonna play it must be for a raise.

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Flop: You've paired your Ace, you have to raise to make drawing more expensive, but the flush and an OESD have odds to call.

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Well that whole, you probably have the best hand thing is a good reason to raise also. Flushes and OESDs are always getting the right odds to call so worrying about them is a waste of brain power.

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Turn: I don't know. At this point I'm wondering what they could have been calling with and worrying whether there is an AQ or AJ out there.

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MUtB syndrome at its finest, You should know if AQ is out there by now and even if he does have AJ it doesn't really matter cause your kicker isn't playing. If you are gonna see monsters at least be scared of the obvious one.

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River: I'm inclined to check here; I figure I'm more more likely to lose than win if he calls me here.

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Check bad, bet good!

Even if you are gonna be beat more often than not when called (which I don't believe is that case) you should still often bet since you are gonna call a bet anyway. By betting you will get a bet out of hands that will happily check behind (any Q, a smaller pair, or even K-high), when you check many players will only bet a hand that has you beat (or tied).