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Old 12-09-2005, 09:03 AM
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Default Re: strange hand against mike l. 20/40

pj,

my experience in such games is limited, but i think an A pays you off sometimes (AJ almost always), and 3 Qs w/ a kicker below T will always pay off.

though these hands don't make much sense (wouldn't we hear from him earlier?), neither do any of the FH hands aside from JJ, for the same reason.

that's why i think it's close but i lean toward raising - it is very unlikely he has a hand that beats yours and 3-bets (jj being the lone logical exception), and it is also unlikely that he has a hand that you beat that he played this way and decided to bet the river. i think the latter range is larger than the former, though.

back to the flop which i meant to comment on earlier:

i think you should bet it. if you are checking flops like these occasionally, then you must also check sometimes when you flop nicely, or mike and similar players will notice. the caveat is that in multiway pots, checking in last position w/ a very good hand is usually a big mistake (missing value + giving free cards) and so you would almost never want to do this. thus, i prefer always betting on good/bad flops to mixing in occasional checks when the flop is good/bad.

also i think it's pretty unlikely that mike cr's you on this flop. first, from his perspective it nailed your hand range, so he is unlikely to be cr'ing to take the pot away. second, many of the hands that would have hit him hard he probably would've capped preflop - aa, qq, ak, maybe tt. third, if he did have one of these hands, or aq, or at, i think there's a good chance he would lead the flop and trap the dude in the middle as opposed to shutting him out.
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