[Irieguy]

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Yeah it is pretty boring, I just want to know exactly what to do. Against the following call ranges (that are wayyy too loose IMO, 55+,ATo+,A8s+,KQs, pushing is almost breakeven). If they get to the following range (66+,ATs+,AJo+), which is Still tighter than some may be, it becomes +.2%.

In any case I feel that the evidence suggests that it's appropriate to make some kind of raise, and that raising to 400 or so is the right play. Whenever simply opening allin has such a good chance of being +EV, it pains me to simply fold my hand.

In any matter, I don't believe it's of the utmost importance to not fold here. It's hard to prove mathematically because its not just some push/fold situation, but I suspect that it's correct to raise something. Can anyone prove me wrong?



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I don't know if I can prove you wrong, but I see a potential flaw in the logic "if there's a good chance pushing would be +EV, folding can't be right."

The difference between pushing and raising when you know you'll have to fold to a re-raise is quite large.

All of the math behind the value of pushing incorporates the expectation you gain from sometimes being ahead, and sometimes winning even when you are behind. Obviously you lose all of this when you fold after VPIP.

If your opponents would only re-raise you with hands that beat you, the argument for making a raise would be stronger. But there are probably at least a few hands your opponent could hold which would fold to a push, but push against a small raise by you. (TJs comes to mind, or maybe a very small pair.)

You also have the problem of seeing a flop and being made to fold a better hand, or being trapped by a better hand that wouldn't have extracted all of your chips with a different preflop action.

In other words, by making a small raise you introduce into the EV equation a lot of possibilities that don't exist when you push. You become much more likely to lose a "small" amount, but still susceptible to losing everything. You are also allowing your opponents an opportunity to outplay you... even if they do it by accident.

So, I think that in order for a raise to be correct here, your opponents would have to be very unlikely to push with a worse hand, very unlikely to stop-n-go you, very unlikely to bluff at the pot after the flop, and willing to fold often to a small preflop raise. These circumstances sometimes exist, and I would sometimes raise with this hand here.

But, I think folding preflop would be more correct than raising more often than not. If I'm wrong about this, I don't think it's because of anything that push/fold ICM calculations can prove.

Irieguy