Re: Odds of a major downswing?
So you're worried about a 500-SnG stretch? Wow. Three weeks ago I was an 18% ROI at the 11-33's (with most of that being at the 22's) through my first 7k'ish SnG's...over the course of my next 550 SnG's I was down 40 buyins.
Now, was some of tilt? Probably. I certainly didn't play perfect poker over the course of the losing swing. But most of it was just a CRAPPY run of cards. It happens from time to time.
11 buyins, whether over the course of 300 or 1000 SnG's...is really not that big a deal. You will experience worse if you play long enough.
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