[KowCiller]

Zag-

Thanks for the post.

I'm not denying that preflop is marginal, and it *might* be a -EV play.

I think most of your post assumes he has KK every time. Against a many players, I have a significant amount of fold equity when they do have big pairs. This guy has PFR 6%, which isn't astronomical, but it does mean he's raising a lot more than big pocket pairs. So when he does have A-face, I'll win this pot 2/3 of the time (when he misses), plus whatever non-zero % of the time he folds, plus 6% edge pot equity edge I have when he does have a big pair, plus the overlay of the preflop money and his follow up bet.

While I don't have hard numbers to display, intuition tells me that these factors combine to make this play more +EV than you indicate, as you're only counting the expected value of my hand vs. pair.

Yes, there are reverse implied odds involved, and yes this is be a high variance play against a calling station. In a reply to TheWorstPlayer above, he points out the fact that if he's going to call me when I hit anyway, I might as well go into check-call mode postflop.

As always I welcome people to set me straight if my logic has holes in it.

Thanks,
KoW