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Old 08-10-2005, 02:37 PM
n1bd n1bd is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 63
Default Re: JT95ds hand (Poll)

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Whatever you do , you do trying to get allin on the flop, right?

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Actually, I think you're trying to get all your opponents to fold with maximum profit and minimum risk.

If you get all in on the flop you are either flipping coins with a set or buried under a better draw (A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is 51%; A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is 59%; A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is 85%; A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is 86%).

If instead you get to the turn with more money to bet, then you find yourself oop in a tricky spot, especially if you hit your draw with a non-nut out. (You only have 6 nut outs on the flop.) Check-raising the flop leaves you with an especially crappy pot size on the turn if your CR is flat called.

Lead, three-bet looks good and avoids tricky situations later, as you're now pot committed. This line seems to maximize fold equity as well as the size of the pot you are stealing, so I vote for it. Unfortunately, this line does give your opponent the leverage of the fourth flop bet all in for like $40-50 more. You are obviously forced to call the final raise, but if you get to this point, you opponent often has a set or stronger draw, so you lose a good fraction of those last 50 bucks.

Another plus for leading, depending on the opponent, is that it might help you define his hand. Maybe he never raises the nut flush draw or always raises a set or top two. Then his reaction to your flop lead makes the turn much easier to play if it brings a spade or a Q or whatever.

If you are in a game of nits where a raise of your flop lead definitively means a monster, then three-betting obviously loses its luster.

Edit: If you get action from more than one opponent, your hand sucks (you are probably up against made hand + better draw) and you should bail or at least play cautiously.
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