Re: 12/23 RESULTS
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Any thoughts on adjustments. My first thought is to take the average of each team over the last 5 games to get my base number instead of season stats.
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I think your intent is good, in that you want to get a feel for how the team is playing in its more recent games, but that still depends on the schedule. The #'s will be different if the last 5 games were against all Over teams or all Under teams...maybe you could factor the schedule in somehow? Then it gets complicated.
Frankly, your current system is having some success, I'd stick with it for now to give you some time to see how it does, and to give you a better idea of exactly how/why/if it needs to be tweaked.
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