Re: Very Simple Projected Runs scored Formula
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Do this and you'll be very very close to the actual lines
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Yeah.
What I did was take the home teams median total at home, the road teams median total on the road, the home teams median runs scored at home added to the road teams median runs scored on the road added to the home teams median runs given up at home and the road teams median runs given up on the road. Then average all of that crap together. What you get is 99.9% identical to the actual line unless there is a pitching outlier.
So what I do is just look at number of occurances. How many times has the home team gone over or under the predicted number at home and how many times has the road team gone over or under the predicted number on the road. If the number of occurances, both for home and away teams, drifts significantly enough away from 50% and there is no pitching surprise I have a bet.
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