Re: Very Simple Projected Runs scored Formula
Do this and you'll be very very close to the actual lines (usually within half a run), so it doesn't help too much. I've experimented with this formula or one very similar to it and it like I said, it's so close to the actual line barring some exceptional circumstances (such as a "good" pitcher who has a bad ERA to start the season such as Barry Zito or Randy Johnson, where the line will be lower than the formula's projection) that it's not of much use. There would be A LOT of variance with this strategy I think, especially if you're willing to bet on very small edges according by the formula, such as betting the under when the formula comes to 8.7 and the line is 9. Good luck though.
|