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Old 12-29-2005, 03:38 PM
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Default Re: probability of getting flush with suited hand

he is referring to the probability of getting exactly three cards of your suit on the board. If you include the chance that there are four or five of your suit on the board the chances of making a flush are ~8.4%.

I did the math by taking the probability of getting exactly three of your suit on the board times the ways of getting two more cards on the board [C(11,3)*C(47,2)]/total number of possible boards C(50,5). This computation includes the times that the other cards are of your suit. To exclude those times you would figure the numerator by saying [C(11,3)*C(39,2)]. This yeilds 5.77%, which rounds to the 6% he reported.

If my calculations are off, one of the more probability savvy posters will correct me, I'm sure.
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