Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
Odd that this thread didn't get more comments, it's a tricky decision for lime.
I mean, UTG may have AJ and hero is drawing dead to a J, it's a nasty board and few would raise here without either a J or a set. If it's either lime is dead to the J.
8.5-1 (less rake) isn't really enough to draw, i don't think, and do we want to invest another 1BB if we have to showdown? Considering the river action may be SB bets and UTG raises hero may have to fold to SB's river donk too.
I'd say your outs are 3 jacks (i don't count the flush draw worthy of concern here, you have the A :clubs: so someone would have to have exactly QJ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or QT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or JT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] here methinks).
I would assign 1 out to the remaining 2 tens in case someone has a set or the T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] completes an unlikely flush, and i'd assign 0.5 outs to the remaining aces as 2 pair may not cut it either. That's 4.5 outs; getting 8.5-1, you stand to win about 10% of the time if you hit the river and the pot would need to be laying 9-1 for you to take it; since 0.5BB at least is being raked, i think this is a turn fold.
Does anyone dispute my reasoning? Does anyone think we can make up 2BB of implied odds?
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