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Old 10-12-2005, 11:05 AM
phish phish is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 47
Default Re: Misplayed every street? what do you do? tough spot with KQ

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(Anyways, Preflop you should call. You have a mediocre hand for the situation considering your position and the number of players in the pot.) It's pretty +EV to raise, not debateable.

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well ive stated reasons for combleting the sb...so if its so clear EV to raise this from the sb lets hear why.

Barron

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I'll offer a guess on the thinking why it's positive EV to raise, and articulate why I think it's wrong.

It's positive EV to raise because KQ is almost certainly better than the average hand out there, so I should put more money in the pot. Plus the fact that one or two players may fold is an added plus.

My problem with that reasoning:
1. Even if one player folds (unlikely both will fold), you're still in a multi-way situation.
2. KQ off does not play well multi-way. So questionable whether it's really positive ev to raise.
3. Most importantly, this raise affects how the hand will be played post-flop: the most reasonable good flop for your hand is top pair. Now one pair with good kicker is very vulnerable multi-way. If you hit this flop, you'd prefer that your opponents fold. By making the pot big, you make this less likely.

Plus, one of the biggest advantages that a winning player has is the ability to outplay their opponents post-flop. And that means getting off a good but losing hand. By building the pot, you make it harder to do this also. Hence, any gain in pre-flop equity (if any) is, in my opinion, more than offset by loss in post-flop flexibility.

We've all heard complaints about wild games where it's usually capped pre-flop and people are now chasing with everything to the end (and in most cases properly so). Those are not the best games for the expert player to be in. Raising here with this hand has some of the effect of that.

Now if you were in a heads-up situation, (SB limps in and you're the BB) then I agree the pre-flop raise is positive EV. Multi-way, you're better off calling and seeing a cheap flop.

(As an aside, there is an article in last month's magazine by baronvontoth whereby he raises pre-flop, thinking he has a better than avg hand, which traps him for many bets post-flop and he hits his gutshot to win the hand. The conclusion he drew was that his pre-flop raise made it possible for him to win this big pot, whereas I think the proper conclusion would have been 'beware of building a pot cause it can trap you,' making you play like the fish that you're supposed to be feeding off.)

After all, if you're building the pot pre-flop so that you and the fish play the same post-flop, where's your edge coming from? Playing better starting hands? That just isn't enough of an edge to make it worth playing.
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