[schwza]

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good fold. had to think about it for a while. You are chopping this pot at best.

tight players don't reraise limpers and a raiser w/ KQ (the only remotely possible hand that were still beating) and he's not betting QQ that hard on a K high board.

I would have bet into him on the flop since you checking twice makes folding a little tougher because he sees some weakness, but you likely lost the minimum on this hand.

AA, AK, KK for sure.

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this would be reasonable advice if hero had a better read. he wrote:

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roughly 600 in this $10 tourney. 10 minutes into it.

not much of a read on opponent except that he has played maybe 20% or less of his hands

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so we're about 10 hands in, and villain has played about 2 hands. definitely a chance he's played 3. 20% VPIP is not all that tight, and it's over ten hands. even if he had folded every hand and i was 100% sure of it, it would not be enough to overwhelm my standard read of "i'm playing in a $10 tournament. people will splash around without the values like it's their job."

even if we assume that villain is the tightie that hero believes he is and that the only possible hands for him to have AA/KK/AK, there are 3 AA's, 1 KK, and 6 AK's. that means hero has 30% equity in the pot (get 50% 6 times in 10), and he's facing a bet that somewhat smaller than pot-sized, so a call is about break-even in terms of chipEV. (and early in a MTT chipEV is about the same as cashEV).

harrington has written that you should assume there's at least a 10% chance that an opponent is bluffing, even if you have a pretty good read on them. here we barely have a read at all.