Re: Challanging Ed Miller\'s Criticism of Lee Jones
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ONE: I simply do not see how your specifying that, “In low-limit games, that simply isn’t true” can be correct. The odds of someone being dealt an Ace in any 10 handed game—regardless of the limit you are playing at—are exactly the same and I believe that is what, close to 80%?
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We have more information in this problem. An Ace already has hit the board, leaving only 3 Aces in the deck. Use Bayes' Theorem to figure out the how the percentage of another Ace being in a player's hand falls.
Secondly, Ed's criticism is spot on. Just because someone called your bet doesn't mean he has an Ace. For what it's worth, I've seen people call down in this situation with pocket 2s, or 2nd or 3rd pair. If he happens to have an Ace, so be it.
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