[Warik]

So, let's say there's 10BB in the pot after the turn, T4Q6 on the board and I have KJ. So, I have an OESD... a 9 gives me a 9-K straight, an ace gives me a T-A straight. Assume a rainbow board.

One of two cards not in my hand and not on the board = 8 outs. 46 unseen cards, 8 of which help me = 38:8 = 4.75:1 (right?)

So if it's going to cost me 1BB to see the river, I'm getting 10:1 pot odds on a 4.75:1 shot = call or probably even bet.

Simple enough.... if one card is left and pot odds > odds against me making my hand (assuming my hand is likely to win of course), then I am justified in betting or calling (maybe betting, definitely calling).

But what's the deal after the flop when there are 2 cards to come?

Example... suppose after the flop we have $16 in the pot and I am looking at a gutshot straight draw.

This gives me 4 outs with 2 cards to come... let's say I need a jack.

P(hitting the gutshot) = 1 - P(no jacks in the next two cards)

1 - [(43/47) * (42/46)] = 1 - (1806/2162) = 1 - .8353376 = 0.1646624

(1 - 0.1646624) / 0.1646624 = ~5.1:1

Now if we're playing $3/$6, it's going to cost me $3 to see the next card and there's $16 in the pot. 16/3 = 5.333:1 > 5.1:1

So... does that mean that I want to see the next card in this case, even though I KNOW there won't $6 x 11 = $66 in the pot before the river to justify a turn call for an 11:1 shot (which is what a gutshot is with one card to come).

So if I know I have the right odds for a 5.1:1 shot on the flop, but know I won't have it on the turn, am I supposed to always fold here? When is it correct to go for a gutshot straight draw?

Or better yet... should I just completely ignore the odds for something happening within the next 2 cards and just focus on the pot odds. vs odds against me for the next card to come?

Thanks