Re: Help w/ probability calculation regarding flopping the nuts
The chance that you have the nuts on the turn means dodging 9 pairing cards and 10 clubs (not counting the club ten). Whether someone else holds two clubs or not is not part of the problem. That would chance of your having second nuts but still being in the lead.
On the river you need to avoid 12 pairing cards and 9 clubs.
So this adds up to
(45- 19)/45*(44-21)/4=30.2%
The chances of runner runner diamond (excluding the paring cards) are 10/45*8/44=4%
So that leaves a total probability of 26.2%
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