[gaming_mouse]

This question comes up when you use PlayerView. You have 20, 50, 100 or more hands on somebody. You look at their postflop aggression factors when making decisions against them. But can you trust these numbers? I suspect that they are not that accurate, but I really don't know.

I thought of a good way to answer this question using MonteCarlo simulation, but I'm busy at the moment and was hoping someone else would be kind enough to do it. All you need is your PT database and some knowledge of a basic web scripting language like PHP or Coldfusion (or anything else that can do queries).

Let's take the 50 hands example. You'd write a script that would query 50 random hands from your own database. It would then compute the PF aggression factor for each street based on that sample, and add them to a list. Then it would take a another random sample of 50, and do the same thing. You'd do this maybe 1000 times and in that way bootstrap the distribution of each agg. factor for 50 hands. The main stat of this distribution we'd be interested in is its SD -- we want to know how accurate that stat is after 50 hands. Same thing for 100 hands, etc.
This is just a rough sketch of the algorithm. There are a number of implementations I can think of.

You could argue that this is player dependent (ie, your distribution may different from mine) but my instincts tell me it really won't be unless you happen to be extremely loose, which I don't think many players here are. So it would be a valuable experiment and should be relevant to everyone.

Anyway, if no one does it, I'll get around to it eventually, but I'm really curious and would appreciate any help.

TIA,
gm