No offense ment to anyone involved in this thread, but this thread is a wonderful example of the different psychological problems that probability causes.

You guys repeatedly make statements that essentially boil down to "I know that this would be incorrect, but I'll do it anyway."

I don't blame you at all, as I do the same. It's very hard (maybe impossible) to actually understand probability fundamentally; the best possible response is just to view things in probability as a game in which you win every time you play correctly, and ignore the actual game you're playing, which is way more complicated and can't really be understood intuitively.