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Old 11-26-2005, 09:35 PM
mikeymer mikeymer is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 133
Default Re: \"Putting your tourney life on the line\" is the new \"AK is a drawing ha

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Ok, so I typed out a long post about why I think AK is a drawing hand. I never got around to posting it, so here it is.

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I've seen some people on here recently critiquing the idea that AK is a drawing hand. In particular, this was being debated in the context of AK vs QQ. I became curious about this so I set out to see if it is true, and here's what I came up with.

AK is only not a drawing hand in the loosest sense. I've been trying out a bunch of different scenarios on PokerStove, and the fact is, AKs is a dog to every pair, all the way down to 22. The only time that it is not a dog to a pair is when it is playing against pocket twos with which it does not share a suit, and then, it has a .17% advantage over the 2s. Now, when I say a "dog," I mean that in the broadest terms possible. It is less than 3 percent behind a pair of fours. So, yes, AKs is essentially equivalent to a pair of 4s, but if you asked me my choice, I'd rather be all in with a pair of fours. I know it makes little difference, but with as much poker as many of us play, those little differences add up to a lot.

AKo is always a drawing hand against pocket pairs. It is about 5% behind a pair of 2s, 10% behind 77, and 13.5% behind QQ.

Back to AKs vs. QQ, assume that the players are not all in pre-flop. AKs is ahead of QQ whenever QQ is unimproved (about 88% of all flops) and AKs flops a flush, flush draw, or A/K. However, this happens less than 50% of the time (I think that it's about 45.77%). If my math is correct (and it may not be), this means that AKs is behind on about 60% of flops. AKs needs the turn and the river to get "even" (as in 53/47) odds with QQ. If AKs can only see the flop, it is likely to be behind QQ. It needs the turn and river to be close to even. It must "draw" to these two extra cards. Thus, it is a drawing hand. It does not rest on it's own laurels. It is dependent on the ability to see the entire board to get (almost) even odds with pocket pair.

Again, I considered AKs here instead of AKo, because AKo is even farther behind a pocket pair. 5% might not seem like a great deal to be behind a pair of twos, but that means that out of 100 pre flop all ins, AKo wins 47; 22 wins 53. With queens its 43:57. Which would you prefer? I'd rather be slightly ahead than slightly behind.

Will

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sweet jesus, is this a joke?
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