Well, if I've absorbed the lesson of the inclusion-exclusion principle, the probability of a match is:


52*51!/52! - C(52,2)*50!/52! + C(52,3)*49!/52! - C(52,4)*48!/52! +...


= 63%.


So yes you should take 3-2 odds since you are better than a 2-1 favorite. I like this principle.