Re: Standard Deviation
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These results might seem suspicious but you need to keep a few things in mind. First some perspective. The probability of rolling a 12 while playing craps is 2.8%. You have seen results around as likely as rolling a 12. Second, developing a hypothesis (that Party’s deal is not fair) after looking at the data does not constitute proof.
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Actually I deleloped the hypothesis about 25K hands ago, (that is, a shorage of flopped sets, and a shortage of flopped pairs with AK and AQ (my primary non-pair raising hands)), but I can not prove that.
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If you truly believe the flops are not fair develop your hypothesis and then collect the data. Keep track of your next 93 flops with KK and your next 1675 flops with pocket pairs. If these results repeat then you might be on to something.
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This is underway now. I will complete this and post the final results, whatever they may be, as well as make available my PT database and all the emailed hand histories from party, which covers 40K hands now.
playing 3-4 tables, I am up to about 7000 hands now, and the results have thus far are a bit worse than those of the first 33K.
Flopped sets are down to 19/221 (8.6%)
Pair or better on flop AK, AQ 25/146 (21%)
I know you all think I am nuts, but I intend to prove this one way or the other, and, as this trend is driving me mad, I need to vent a bit while I grind out these hands. I will also be seeking help from the psychology forum.
-MyNameIsMud
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