View Single Post
  #7  
Old 09-04-2005, 01:47 PM
Michael Davis Michael Davis is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Santa Monica, CA
Posts: 613
Default Re: $5/$10 Q9o on the button

Preflop is fine but not if postflop is butchered. Whatever you do on the flop is fine as long as you don't fold, the case can be made for calling or threebetting depending on the likely reactions of your opponents. That's a limper's flop, though, and your overcard is probably worth 1/2 an out or less, so there's not much value in pushing people out, but there is value in potentially getting to the river for free.

Your numbers on how often you hit this draw are off by quite a bit. Under no circumstances are you folding this hand before the river on that board, aside from some utterly disgusting turn situation where you have to call three cold or something.

The turn is an absolute disaster. You do not want overcalls. Look at the action on the flop. These people have hands. They have hands that have outs to beat you or chop you. Three queens give an ace a higher straight, and hands containing an ace are exactly those that you have a chance of pushing out with a turn raise. The pot is sufficiently large that letting someone draw to a threeouter is a mistake (though it's close and they depend on implied odds for this). Any 9 or an ace on the river could chop the pot for someone else, and somebody with a queen is going to call two cold on the turn. Plus there are any number of two pair/ pair + straight draw possibilities out there that might call. Plus, two pair hands are now correct to call a single bet. You do not want overcalls here, period, and even if you did, it would still be better to raise, because often they will have hands that can or will call two cold. Again, you do not want overcalls.

You should be thinking about going for overcalls when you have 65 and the board is 874 and there a bunch of likely big cards after you. When you have three big cards and a fourth on the fringe of the playing zone, going for calls when you get action no matter how many bets go in is a big no-no.

-Michael
Reply With Quote