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Old 10-20-2005, 10:19 PM
Patrick del Poker Grande Patrick del Poker Grande is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 8
Default Re: Hypothetical way ahead or way behind situation

There's no possible RR Flush, because the flop is rainbow, unless you're playing with a fouled deck and you've got suited QQ.

I personally am going to play this for a small pot. If it's level 1 or 2, unless I'm way outclassed, I'm not looking to risk crippling or elimination on a 50/50 shot. Maybe that's weak, but there's a better place to get my money in.

Say you go for broke every time and all your chips get in the middle. I don't know about the $109s or the $215s, but at the lower levels, 80% of the players would end up with all their money in the pot in this situation by the end of the hand, if not on the flop or turn. Half the time, you're ending up with a double stack right from the start and half the time, you're gone. If my ITM is somewhere in the neighborhood of 40-45%, then I'm already down to 50% with this one play. How likely am I to make the money with this double stack? If I make it 90% of the time that I double up, then I'm going to be ITM 45% overall. I don't have a significant sample size of times that I've doubled up in the first round, so I can't say what my success rate is there, but 90% seems like it might be tough to hit, even with a double stack.
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