[Shillx]

This hand is actaully really complicated since there are so many things at work here...

1) Will he put bets in on the river (with a worse hand) if you just call the turn?

2) How often are we good here?

3) How often will he bet the river with a worse hand?

Point 3 is usually the most important point in figuring out what to do here. If he will never bet on the end with a worse hand you would play the check/call-check/call-check/fold against him everytime. This doesn't look to be a very good board for this though as JJ or TT will probably value bet on the end.

Number 1 isn't all that useful here since we don't know how often we are good here. If we knew that we held the best hand, we would obviously check/raise the turn if that was the last bet he was intending to put in. The player you describe doesn't sound like one that will be able to make a tough fold on the river with JJ or TT or AK. If this is true, the check/raise is terrible since you get more value by having him put in that last bet with 5-8% equity in a smallish pot. If he would never put in that last bet you would be more inclined to knock him out now since you will only get played with on the river when he outdraws you.

The other problem with check/raising is that we will oftentimes be behind here. While we can (and should) fold if we get 3-bet, we miss out on that ~ 8% chance of outdrawing him if we just check/call. Either way we have to invest 2 BB, so we give up about .8 BB by check/raising and folding to a 3-bet (we will have about 8% equity in a 9.75 BB pot).

The only downside is when we get paid off by a worse hand. We get 1.8 BB minus negative implied odds when he calls the check/raise (and river) with JJ (but remember we lose .8 BB when we have to fold to a 3-bet). So if he will call with JJ or AK half as often as he will 3-bet us, it is about an even $$ proposition.

The problems are...

1) He will sometimes fold JJ or AK or whatever.

2) He might walk us with AA or KK (or even raise the river). If he just calls the turn check/raise with AA, we are forced to put 3 BB into the middle drawing super thin. He might even raise the river with that same hand and force us to put 4 BB in. We avoid these pitfalls by either check/calling down or betting the river after we c/c the turn.

Brad