Re: Yet Another Big River Fold
Let me join the 44 chorus and add some details.
1. 44 actually seems like a reasonable triple coldcall (as such things go) whereas most queens are completely ridiculous.
2. Where was his queen on the flop? The 77 story gives me the idea this player may have heard of protecting vulnerable hands. 44 is a probable flop call (versus raising) whereas AK/KQ/QJ/QT are possible flop calls. The flop call increases the relative likelihood of a 44 starting hand compared to a Qx starting hand.
3. Even if I could make this fold, you can't.
If I understand your previous posts correctly you are a very loose/aggressive player compared to most of us. This style of play filtered through the observations of a poor player is likely to leave the impression that you are out-of-control and unreliable. I'm not saying this is objectively true, but Button is unlikely to be able to preceive the method behind the madness. A feeling that your hand may not be as good as it sounds combined with previous examples of you being aggressive and eventually folding is about all a player at his level needs to take a shot with 44.
4. Objectively speaking a river bet with 44 is a very good play. Analysis of your betting makes 99 almost certain. It has to be right to take the 17-1 shot that you will do what you did.
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