Thread: Am I a donkey?
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Old 12-12-2005, 04:12 PM
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Default Re: Am I a donkey?

It's highly unlikely villian is making a play here - he'd be making a move against a stack that could hurt him, that has already shown strength and interest in this pot, and shown it UTG. I interpret his raise as saying: "if you and I are going to play a big pot we're making that decision now - i figure you have a hand so let's go - if you were just tramping around w/ a mid pair or suited connectors I'm not letting you get a cheap shot at breaking me 'cause I got a hand that I'm going to have a hard time getting away from". From his perspective a 3x raise here is problematic -you call and push the non-AK flop and then what? He gets the chance to be the donkey. I'm putting him on AA or KK - maybe QQ/JJ that he intends to fold to a push but I would have played that as a call and hoped I could break your AA/KK when my set hits - unlikely he has AK which I would either call or 3x reraise.

FWIW - if you put him on AA/KK/AK I don't think the chip EV is any better calling than pushing (I did quick manual math so I could very well be wrong) - you just increase the % of time you stay alive w/ a smaller stack versus busting out (which w/ your stack size isn't necessarily bad).
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