Re: Ravens vs Browns
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I like to use the Football Outsiders Weighted DVOA ratings, I basically convert them to point spreads, factor in a home field advantage and adjust for injuries subjectively. It's worked out pretty well the last two seasons.
This week it works out to Baltimore -1.2. They do account for the fact that the Ravens have been playing better of late, though maybe not enough. Cleveland is 3-4 at home, and Baltimore hasn't won a road game all year - and my 'system' gets to the 1.2 using just a standard HFA.
You were asking for reasons not to take Baltimore, there you go . . .
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I think Football Outsiders is a great site. I don't think their ratings are near perfect for predicting future results, though. Especially in the last week, where there are a plethora of other factors in play. I have no opinion on the right side of this game, though.
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