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Old 11-29-2004, 01:06 PM
nicky g nicky g is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: London, UK - but I\'m Irish!
Posts: 1,905
Default Re: flopping the nuts and folding??

"He would also have the 3 not Diamond Aces, the 3 Kings, 2 Tens, 2 nines, and 3 Eights.

So he now has 21 Outs 2 Times Over.

This is still a hard fold on the flop, but if you are last to act, and one player has the flush draw, and the other a wrap, and you see a pot sized bet and a pot sized raise, if you are just holding a naked set it might be time to get out."

I'm sorry, this wrong. It is -EV to fold here, even if you are a dog to win the pot. If you get it all-in you;re getting better than 2:1, which is roughly your odds to improve, never mind the fact that you may not have to. Furthermore, how could you ever put people on hands that precisely?

"with middle set it's an easy fold"

Because with a raise and a reraise it looks like someone has top set in addition to the fact that there are big draw out there. If you knew you were up against just draws that didn't block any of your fullhouse outs, folding would be wrong.
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