Re: 2 all ins with 3 people left
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Should you call and give yourself the approximate 1/3 chance of winning or wait for a better situation?
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I think your approximation of 1/3 chance is pretty high, that would assume that all three of you have an equal chance of winning. But, because there is a push and a call, there is no way your KJo has an equal chance.
Using pokerstove:
All-in: 28.4263 % { AA-22, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo } This assumes that this guy is a shorty and pushing a large range of hands.
Call: 48.5113 % {AA-88, AKs-AQs, KQs, AKo-AQo } Assuming this guy needs a premium hand to call.
Your hand: 23.0623 % { KsJh }
6000 chips case:
80% of the time you lose and are now even in chips heads up.
20% you win the tourney.
fold: you're ~3-1 ahead in chips.
4000 case:
80% of the time you lose and are now 2-1 dog in chips.
20% of the time you win.
fold: ~even in chips.
Basically, I think I'm folding this regardless of whether I have 4000 or 6000 chips. If I think I'm better than my opponents I would rather just outplay one of them heads up.
If I don't feel I'm better, than I may take the risk if I have the huge chip lead.
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