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Old 08-01-2005, 10:11 AM
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Default Re: Wait for the turn for more equity or not?

Mbob, thanks for the reply. But, are you saying to raise here?

This is dangerous flop for me given the size of the field. I could be up against a flush already. 1/3rd of the time a very likely flush draw will fill up. There are also possible straight draws on this hand. And my kicker isn't great, I could be outkicked or up against two pair or a set. Any spade and any card 7 or higher (other than the two remaining Jacks could be bad for me). I don't know if this is being to paranoid, but against such a large field I think it's warranted.

I'm torn here between 1) folding, 2) calling to the river if no scare cards come and I don't face any heavy action, and 3) calling the flop & if I get a safe card on the turn, bet out.

Folding vs. calling down I believe comes down to my estimate that I'll have the winning hand at showdown vs the expected odds. I think the expected odds are around 4-1 in this hand. So I need to think I have the best hand at the showdown at least 20% of the time. Not sure that's the case.

Waiting for a safe card on the turn and betting out doesn't seem bad. But what if I'm raised by an opponent that I have seen bluff? And what about the others who may be slow playing a big hand. Betting out on the turn will be me in a difficult spot if I'm raised.

I really don't know on this hand, comments are appreciated.
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