Re: 15/30 JJ against a LAG
A'ight, I made this nifty little river calculator yesterday in EXCEL, so let's see what it says.
Your opponent:
Calls with worse hand 55%
Folds with better hand 0%
Raises with better hand 90%
Raises with worse hand 25%
Bets with worse hand 50%
Bets with better hand 95%
Has the better hand 45%
EV: Check-call -0.15 BB
EV: Bet-call -0.28 BB
EV: Bet-fold -1.45 BB
EV: Check-fold -2.61 BB
Those percentages, of course, are guesstimates, and if they're wrong ... garbage in, garbage out. But it appears that check-call is slightly better than bet-call against the described opponent.
One thing to keep in mind, though, is that if your opponent is *very* aggressive, and will frequently *raise* with a worse hand (it sounds like this guy chills out a lot of the time on the expensive streets, and doesn't really fit the description), then that swings the balance in favor of bet-call:
Your opponent:
Calls with worse hand 55%
Folds with better hand 0%
Raises with better hand 90%
Raises with worse hand 40%
Bets with worse hand 50%
Bets with better hand 95%
Has the better hand 45%
EV: Check-call -0.15 BB
EV: Bet-call -0.11 BB
EV: Bet-fold -2.24 BB
EV: Check-fold -2.61 BB
In other words, it is possible to induce a bluff by betting, as well as by checking.
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