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Old 12-08-2005, 11:07 PM
AaronBrown AaronBrown is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 505
Default Re: Theoretical: you know opponents hole cards on flop

I'd play passively. I'd see most flops. I'd fold if I were drawing almost dead, like holding A4 against AK, or if I were a huge underdog, like 72o against AA. I'd fold a few more hands after the flop, a few more after the turn, but I'd probably see 30% of the river cards.

Assuming this game is 10 handed, I figure to have the best hand 10% of the time if everyone stays in. I will fold very few of my winning hands, while other people will fold a lot, so I expect to win about 20% of the hands. A lot of these will be big pots, because I'll know that I have it won, while the other player will think there's no way I could know that. I'll put in a fair amount of money in the 80% I lose, but I should still be well ahead.

To the other players, I will look like a calling station. I'll almost never raise, and I'll call far too often. I'll seem lucky in that I often start with terrible hands that hit the flop, or weak hands that suck it out on the river, or win with marginal hands against players representing very strong hands. It will take a long time for good players to start staying away from me, a lot of calling stations get runs of luck, and no one will be scared when I call because I so often fold.
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