Re: hmm
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You're the favorite on the flop, and getting 2:1, I'd check-raise.
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I was wondering why no one else mentioned this because I thought that with the other guy in there it was the right play, and it makes folding the river an easier decision.
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I'm not sure I like it. According to his range (AK/AA-TT) you're ahead ~58%. But first you have to estimate how often the pretty passive pfr will bet AK and JJ on this flop against 3 players. If we cut those combos in half (I agree that might be too much) we're only ahead of pfr 40% of the time and remember we're also assuming we're always ahead of UTG. I would say we'll get 3-betted close to always when we're behind. This will fold UTG a pretty good portion of the time, which we don't want since the 3-bet indicates we're always behind and often drawing slim. We're not likely sharing any outs with UTG. So in reality we're not getting 2:1 on our money and we're not ahead as often as we might suspect.
I can see many respected posters like this flop play, but I'm not sure I do. If I think pfr is capable of betting AK/JJ on this flop I go for the check/raise, if not I bet it myself. But it's hard to estimate where the boarderline between these lines goes. Just from the top of my head:
Chance he'll bet AK/JJ=x
x>80% => check/raise
80%>x>70% => check/call
70%>x => bet/call
So I agree there's circumstances where a check/call will be correct. I'm notsure where to put villain in this range since the read is vague, but I think there's a decent chance betting the flop is correct.
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