[suited aces]

Great post.

One criticism though. I'm not sure how this ultimately affects your analysis, but I believe your assumptions ignore hands that the hero wins without a showdown.

In other words, you assume that the hero will go to showdown with 561 hands out of 10,000. Then you state that you will "take 53.5% as our average for 2 big bets per 100 hands" and conclude that the hero will win 300 hands. This is wrong, because the only way a 2 big bet per 100 hands player will win 300 hands out of a thousand (and still be a 2bb/100 player) is if he never wins a hand without a showdown.

To put it one more way, your analysis needs to discount the # of hands won at showdown to compensate for the hands that the hero wins without a showdown.

Let me know if I'm missing something.