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Old 12-08-2005, 04:36 PM
StellarWind StellarWind is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 704
Default Re: Making him fold a better hand

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But here, MP is LP, and likely won't be doing any raising.

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Totally disagree. The MP hands we fear are Tx and 88. Typical LP players slowplay those hands on the flop and then put in a dramatic turn raise. Coldcalling the flop is a clear warning that this may be coming. Not necessarily of course, but tens are common cards and we should be aware of the danger.

Note that my understanding of OP is that MP is a fairly normal LP and not some 80/2/0.1 pathological calling station.

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I disagree that there is any worry here that bet/fold will leave us in the dangerous situation of folding the best hand, given the above.

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Assume it goes 3-bet flop, all call, bet turn. There are two ways you might get talked off the best hand:

1. UTG has something like JJ/99 and raises. The idea behind this play is to drive out the third player while securing a free showdown for the pair. He probably intends to fold to a 3-bet and reasons that this is no worse than calling down. You might think this is a poor play and I might agree with you but that really isn't the point. People do this once in a while.

2. The general read on MP is a little off or he has a loose wiring moment as bad players so often do. He sees that he can represent trips and takes it into his head to make a free showdown raise from the button with 8x or a small pocket pair.

Even if such plays are quite rare they still make a big difference because the pot is so large.

But the biggest problem as I said before is paying to see the river and then not seeing the river. It's almost worth calling a raise just to take a card. That means nearly an entire BB of EV disappears when you are forced to fold your outs.
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