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Old 12-29-2005, 01:54 AM
rvg72 rvg72 is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 113
Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

[ QUOTE ]
There is little utility in going from 100 to 150 chips when the BB is 100. You will not be able to get anyone to fold. Getting up to ~400 chips at least makes it a decision.
Specific example:
200 chips, 50/100 blinds, you push from the BB. You're giving him 3:1 on the call. Increase your stack to 400 and you give him 5:3, odds that provoke folds. But there's no difference between "outchipping you by 1" and "outchipping you by 5000."
Ability to make your opponents fold preflop is a function of your stacksize, but it's not linear.

[/ QUOTE ]

Completely agree with you. ICM does break down when stacks get extremely low. For example, a player with 300 chips when the BB is at 30 has the same ICM value as he does when the BB is at 400 which clearly wouldn't be the case. Additionally, this player would have the same ICM value if he was going to post the 400 chip BB in 1 hand or in 6 hands. Remember, ICM is supposed to give you your fair market value.

Clearly, if you had the opportunity to "buy" this players 400 stack and take over for him for whatever value ICM says it is worth then you would prefer the 30 BB over the 400 BB and you would always prefer being further away from having to post the blinds.

ICM does not take "time" or lack there of it, imminent blinding out or complete lack of Fold Equity into account. So, it undervalues short stacks when the blinds are low and overvalues them when the blinds are high and, when stacks are low and blinds are high the short stacks ICM drops each hand as he gets closer to being forced to post the blinds.

rvg
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