[SpeakEasy]

[ QUOTE ]
The flop comes Ad 9d 7s. I have clubs. The small blind checks, the big blind bets $90, three callers (including Mr. $15) to me. I make it $500 to go. After the raise, I have ~$1500, Mr. $15 has ~$950 left, and calling my raise will put the other three players all-in or virtually all-in. Is this raise a mistake?

The three players go all-in to call. Now Mr. $15 limp-reraises his last $450. Mr. $15 has shown some aggression in betting, but has not done anything that might be deemed a sophisticated play. From watching him play, you are not always sure if he knows what his hand is. Is the pot too big to fold or do you figure you are toast?

[/ QUOTE ]

Somewhat confused here -- "Now Mr. $15 limp-reraises his last $450." Didn't he call the $90 bet opening bet on the flop, then re-raise your raise? "Limp" re-raise?

In any event, if I'm following correctly, the pot has 8 players for a total of $120 going to the flop. With the $90 flop bet and three callers when the action gets to you on the flop, the pot is $480.

When you raise $500 and the others still in the pot would be all-in with a call, they are each individually getting about 2 to 1 on their money (and it will be much better than 2 to 1 with each additional caller). A diamond flush draw only needs 2 to 1 odds here, so a flush draw will call your raise. With four other players still in the pot, you are most assuredly against at least one flush draw, and there is a decent chance you are also facing (1) a set of nines or sevens or (2) A7 or A9 two-pair. A flush draw would call the $90 bet, and a set might also call $90 (although a set should certainly be raising here).

This is an all-in or fold hand when the action first comes to you on the flop, keeping in mind that with the others players all-in around $500 regardless of the size of your raise, the flush draw is locked into his call because he gets the right price. Given the other possible hands still out there and the nature of the betting, and the fact that you've failed to isolate the weak player, I would fold and save my chips for a better opportunity to isolate.

As played, there is now about $3430 in the pot ($480 + $500(your raise) + $500 +$500 + $500 + $450(last raise)). $450 to call for $3430 pot is over 7.5 to 1 odds. You have about a 16% chance to hit your boat, which only requires about 6 to 1 to call. Easy call at this point, and hope that your boat, if it hits, isn't beaten by a bigger boat.