Re: Hand reading 201, part 1
For those who read in flat mode, dont look down here if you are going to answer part 1!!!! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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a. What is Villains most likely type of hand?
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With a small flop lead, but call, then a fairly decent sized stop and go, to me it seems like a one pair hand trying to protect vs a multitude of draws the Hero LAG can have.
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b. What are the likely hands in Villains' hand range?
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Well, preflop he's fairly tight but he's calling a steal raise from a LAG oop. At this point I would narrow his hand to something playable, but nothing monstrous - I'd expect a reraise to help define Hero's hand etc. etc. So namely a small pair, mid pair, perhaps some broadways, connectors, etc. So things "playable" that arent whirlwinds.
His weakish lead seems either like a draw, a big hand going for a 3bet, or a tester with something such as an underpair or weak top pair.
Villain called hte raise, though, which would lead me to think AX[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], XX[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 45, AQ, KQ, QJ, QT. Maybe in that order.
When Villain leads out on the turn (stop & go) He's leading out for about 2/3rd pot, which means he's uncomfortable either calling a bet, or doesn't want to c/r. It's not small enough to smell of a draw (or weak lead) so IMO it's most likely KQ or QT. Followed shortly by something like JT[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or a similar hand which picked up outs. (45[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], etc.)
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c. What hands does Villain need to call a push?
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I think he needs to have QJ. I dont see QQ (reraise pf) and for a set, thats a weird, weird way to play it. (I'd expect checkraise on turn, or a bigger turn bet, or a flop 3bet) Unfortunately if he has a draw and gets pushed on, he wont have odds to call, which is another reason this bet by a draw is not good.
Villain could have AQ or KQ, but it would be terribly hard to call a push with those hands.
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