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Old 10-19-2004, 12:02 AM
Awesemo Awesemo is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 8
Default Re: Party Poker badbeat jackpot odds

I'm not going to figure it out, but a way to estimate the odds would be to start with the board. The board either needs to be double paired for quads beating quad 8s, paired and str8 flushed, or just a 3 straight flush. Figure out the percentage of the times these are satisfied. Now figure out the probability that two people have two specific cards each, which 9.344 * 10E-7. Now you need to adjust for the fact that there are multiple straight flush possibilties in the second case. You should come up with the answer. What I am interested in more is how the EV of playing hands changes with the jackpot.
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