[elysium]

hi tilts

since the UTG will not often have a limp reraising hand, there is never a reason to suspect that he is limp reraising. mathematically, barring an obvious tell suggesting he is going to reraise, you have to think he won't reraise. what is more important is whether or not you have good reason to strongly believe that he will call. if you were getting 12.5-1 odds, you could revert back to your current line of reasoning and go with the math barring some tell suggesting otherwise.

yes, there is room for considering the occasional UTG'er who exhibits an abnormal compulsive desire to limp reraise with many hands, and some other exotic type situations; for example, his wife may have just finally given him good news on pull made at the 250,000-1 machine, and if the news came in after his original limp-in, but before the action got to you, and he was very, very happy, and you now had strong reason to think that he was about to say, 'oh what hay, reraise everybody. let's build a pot.', well, if something like that happened, 12.5-1 would lose a little luster. i think you can fold now.

mathematically, you've got to believe he won't limp reraise. you believe this because mathematically, he won't often have a limp reraising hand. at a measley 7.5-1 though, you need to have good, strong reason to believe that he will call. at 12.5-1, you can go back to mathematical thinking, unless he's a psychopath or you think that he's about to say, 'oh what the hay...'.