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Old 11-16-2005, 05:37 PM
Catt Catt is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 998
Default Re: Preflop bluff turns into money by the river

OK, I'll throw in a minumum of reasoning to my previous post.

Your statement: "My whole idea was that you miss the flop 2 out of 3 times, and knowing he will fold any flop he misses, I will win a nice pot 2 out of 3 times. So, I'm going into the hand as a 2:1 favorite against him" is pretty ridiculous. First, you're only taking into account unpaired hands hitting a pair on the flop; second, you're not accounting for flopping a draw; third, you can't be certain he folds on the flop in a big pot for one bet - your read just isn't that strong; fourth, this hypothetical action actually contradicts your given read "MP2 is a LAG preflop(47%/31%), but very rarely shows down hands, either folding after the turn with nothing or jamming the pot" -- but he'll now fold for one bet on the flop?; fifth, there are four people to act behind you, including one "classic calling station;" sixth, despite flopping NOTHING you are betting into the calling station and the LAG who likes to see the river; seventh, if you think you have adequate responses to all these points, then please explain to me why 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is a better hand to this with than 72o -- the bulk of your +EV argument is essentially stealing a pot by investing at minimum 2BBs.

Lastly, nice apology; however, in the future when someone criticizes a play, responding with, in effect, "am I the only good player here who varies his play or is everyone else a robotic ABCer?" is not the best way to win friends and influence people. Good luck.
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