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Old 12-22-2005, 07:35 PM
The Yugoslavian The Yugoslavian is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Orange County
Posts: 130
Default Re: Popped the cherry, might as well ask some dumb ones.

You cannot calculate your true ROI.

Given a significant number of STTs your numbers take on some sort of meaning given certain confidence intervals and whatnot....

Temporally, there are too many factors IMO to have any sort of good 'rule of thumb' for how ROI is being impacted by outside factors.

Also, 'being on a heater' is not affected by when you play your games....what it means is that you've statistically been outperforming what your theoretical expected value *ought* to be. Many people who are bad players or good players whose games of gone to sh!t will say they have had a horrible run of cards....sometimes it's true and sometimes it's not. At least when someone says 'I'm on a heater' they are likely being accurate (b/c psychologically most people would rather take credit for their heater by thinking that they are just v good at poker rather than hitting a period of statistically, abnormally 'good' variance).

Anyway, I don't know how long you've been viewing the forum but your thinking is going to make looking at your stats problematic over time (as you will most likely be emotionally invested in what your stats are).

Yugoslav
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