Re: Anyone have data on potential variance in the bankroll?
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With a winrate of 1.0 bb/100, standard deviation of 15 bb/100, and a 95% confidence interval, it will take 86000 hands to determine your results within +/- 1.0 bb/100. In other words with those numbers, it would take 86k hands just to know if you are even a winner in the game for sure.
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Except there's a large chance you wouldn't be sure of it. 50% of the time you're going to have an observed winrate of less than 1BB/100, and you're going to be pulling your hair out because of the swings. Not only that, but you're going to be "overrolled" for your stakes, and when you try to move up, you're going to lose money and confidence.
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With those same numbers you should also have a bankroll of about 500 big bets to cover all downswings that will occur during those 86k hands.
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Except that you're going to end up with 800-1800 BB for your limit and feel like you "should" move up.
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