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Old 06-26-2005, 09:22 PM
BobboFitos BobboFitos is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
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Default Re: If this guy raises, I\'m moving in...

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The move is not terrible against an unknown, but I'd prefer to do it against a player I already know to be capable of folding. Some players will correctly read OP's line as a big flush draw and will call with any pair and any king.

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I agree with this.

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You seem to be saying a raise here indicates villain definitely has a king. I don't think that's the case at all. Many players will raise any pocket pair here to test the preflop raise

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I dont see as much as that as you, (I see minraises as "tests") but sure, a small % of their hand range will be a small pp. Very small %

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Limp/calling in EP could also easily be AK so I'm not sure why you're ruling that out.

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I didn't... reread my post. I said I think it's a possible hand and I dont see most unknowns folding AK here, and if they dont fold AK, your overcard out isn't live, thus your pot equity is lowered. So when both your folding equity and pot equity go down... Then EV shifts down.

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P's plan to push if he gets raised is good in that most pairs below kings will fold when, by the FTOP, they should call and flip coins.

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almost all will fold, really tough to see someone making that bad of a call (although technically, correct here)

my point was I intrepret a flop raise here as a king, trips, or bluff/flushdraw/test with PP. If they have a king, any king, I'd much rather (as you say, as well) like ot have folding equity vs KQ etc. Trips aren't folding. I also think since you have NFD villain having 2 hearts is somewhat optimistic. Tying this all together, a flop raise on this board generally means they have something that can (correctly, given hands) put alot of chips into the pot.

If they would fold KJ for example, (with a read, you can discern) the play becomes fantastic, because most of the time they can't call you.

What does this all mean? That this play is good on one hand, but not the ideal board (which is what my first post said) for it.

What is the best line? I think the current line given was fine, it's really a decision once you bet the flop to fold call or raise (push, as any other commits you). And I would definately bet the flop, so I would be in the same situation.

villain made about a half pot raise, (35 more into a current pot of 67) so a call is 3:1 on just 9 heart outs if he has trips or AK, 12 outs if he has a K, 15 if he has a small pair. If we somehow have the best hand he probably has 6 outs. A call is tough though because we'd be OOP, and we dont know if Ace is good... so we stand to lose and not really gain too much more (a king would freeze, a weird bluff probably would stop, only positive is the unlikely smaller flush draw if we both hit would give us their stack DD) a fold is fairly similar to above, marginal ~0 ev because you dont have odds if you have 9 outs, but if you have 12 to 15 you do...

So the question is pushing pos EV, because if it's not, calling or folding are better. And if he only raises hands he wont fold to an all in... (or, even like ~85% of the time, because sure, occaisonally he will have weird bluff) then we have somewhere from 33 to 48% pot equity.

Pushing is probably best by a small amount, just want to throw in vs an unknown this isn't routine.
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