[ArtVandelay]

> According to the post,out of about 10 hands (10 minutes at 60 hands an hour) the guy pushes all in 4 or 5 times (40-50% of the time) how can you not call when only behind to exactly 2 hand combinations. As I said, it just suck(ed)

My comment was aimed directly at Acesover8s. I agree that if he accurately portrayed the situation then yes, he did get unlucky. But my point was that he may be trying to justify things after the fact or something, and I was hoping he would get a hand history and see if it really was 4-5 times in the last minute or something less extreme. And like I said, it's possible the guy only did this when there were small stacks still in the hand, in which case he's totally suckering the big stacks by looking more aggressive than he really will be against them. Of course no one who consistantly pushes all-in pre-flop that frequently can be a winning player, but that doesn't mean you're making money off him. And again, I'm just pointing out that purely statistically, if you think something is really unlikely and then it happens you should re-examine your estimation proceedure. When all the money is in and you get sucked out on at 43-1 on the last card, most 2+2 posts assume that the game is fair, so everyone agrees it's bad luck. But when the probability is simply someone's estimate, it's unlikely they believe in themselves strongly enough to attribute the result entirely to bad luck. Maybe when Acesover8s goes back and looks at a history of the last however many hands he will indeed decide that his evaluation was right, but I'm just pointing out that he should make sure to do so.