Re: is this +EV or am I a luckbox?
A lot of things have to happen in order for you to get paid off here. First, you have to hit two pair, set or flush. and even on the slim chance that you do hit these hands you still have to get paid off. If he had AK and then flop was 10 4 4, you still wont be making too much money off of it unless he spikes an ace or a king. And you wont be making any money if your hand doesnt hold, which a good percentage of the time it will bust in this spot. he could just as easily have had KK for 3 kings instead of AA here.
But i do not disagree with your play preflop here. Aggro is the most profitable way to play, so the chances that youll win blinds combined with the times youll out play them with position after the flop with the times that youll stack them when you hit a miracle flop all make this type of play fine. and after their raise, youre getting like 7 to 1 on the call so thats almost trivial.
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