[MCS]

But see, this is the problem with handicapping. Any random square thinks they're a genius this year because the favorites keep covering (not that I'm saying you're a random square).

The thing is, maybe they're right and all the lines are off. But maybe they're just lucky so far and it'll revert back to where favorites aren't winning at a 58% clip. I think the latter is much more likely, but how can I tell someone they're just lucky? They can easily make the case that I'm just wrong every week and for whatever reason favorites are consistently undervalued this year.

I really can't "disprove" it like I can disprove roulette systems. What I CAN do is point to the fact that known sharps continue to bet dogs, and argue that it's unlikely that lifetime losers are now smarter than lifetime winners.

One of the things about sports betting is that you never really know your edge, or even if it exists. You can try to find evidence though.

P.S. Congrats on your Evansville bet, which I like and think was well-reasoned. Are they still the Purple Aces? And do they still have the t-shirt jerseys?