Re: JTo.
Ok -
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Icon: TP preflop, but Agg postflop.
Hands: 84
VP$IP: 11
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First, 84 hands are nothing. But if we take those for face value, he's supposed to be aggressive postflop. He has limped pf, checked the flop, called a "raise" (after a min bet), and checked river. This is not aggression.
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I'd think your hand is almost always good here.
This has to be pushing it.
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Why?
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On the turn, villain min bets and you raise.
Nah, random guy minbets, I raise, and Villain cold-calls.
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My mistake...
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HE could have aton of hands, most of which we're beating.
Name 3 reasonable hands, an UTG limper with a VPIP of 11, cold-calls the turn with, that will call a bet here, that I beat, nonetheless.
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I cant really name a single hand. If we limit him to 11% vpip - so pps, maybe big aces or the like, not even broadways or suited connectors, the best I can come up with is KQs or AJs. Both may call a half pot bet on river. (Esp. AJ)
But a better way to do this is work backwards, and look at the relative value of your hand. What hands beat you?
AA, QQ, TT, 99
AT, KT, QT, T9
KJ, J8
(heh, am I missing any? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )
I think you said he had 0% pfr, so maybe he only raises AA and QQ there. (Or maybe not!) But we'll take them out. TT is impossible, as well. So for an underfull, did he really limp, then not bet a single street with a set? Unlikely.
I dont think he's playing KT or QT or T9 if he really is 11%vpip (although, as said, sample size so small he could) But again, doesnt he bet somewhere w/ those?
He never has J8, and KJ is unlikely, as well.
Its just... I cant see him having a better hand here, and since there ARE hands he could have which call a river bet, you should bet. And, I wouldn't bet alot, because he probably wont make a heroic call w/ a middling hand.
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