[aflaba]

Here is an analysis. We'll see how it turns out :-P. A lot of assumptions will be made...

BB is almost out of the game.

Button can be holding Kx, 6x, dd or some other stuff like Ax or low PP.


When he has Kx I think he will 3-bet most of the time. Then I fold and it costs me the same as calling down would. When he calls and bets the river I will lose 1 BB more. Let's say he'll do that 30% of the time. The I lose 0.3 BB when he has Kx.

With 6x he will probably "always" call + bet the river. That is a worst case scenario that costs 1 BB.

When he has dd he would check through most of the time I think hade I called, as he will after I ch/r. Let's say I win 0.8 BB more from dd.

From Ax and PP I will win almost 1 BB more.


Random card distribution will give button
6x: 2/46 = 35% of the time
Kx: 2/46 = 35% of the time (would sometimes 3-bet flop)
dd: 9/46*8/45 = 30% of the time (would "often" take free card)



Now, these are to many assumptions. I think his most likly hands are
1) Kx = -0.3 BB
2) 6x = -1 BB
3) dd = +1 BB
4) PP/Ax = +1 BB


I think the raise was EV- just like all of you said. But I don't think it was so with much at all. Not as much as I thought at first. Maybe -0.1 BB? Maybe even break-even.


The reason I made the mistake was that I overestimated the times he would have dd here. I hadn't done calculations on that before. Also in the heat of combat I assumed he would always bet it on the turn.

EDIT: The point was to charge worse hands. I don't think that was enough though. If he were more aggressive like dave said, then probably yes.

EDIT2: Maybe it was even EV+. lol, I don't know. I'm just happy it wasn't a big mistake to the best of my knowledge