Re: Bubble Shortstack all-in, hero w/ nut flush draw
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I really do not like this decision much at all, first of all i wouldnt risk going out in fourth place because you called an all in on a draw. Second just from my experience when you are in a situation like this people are much more likely to bet only when they have something (they want the other person out as much as you do), so unless you have a strong suspection to the contrary I think this a definate fold.
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I don't think you realize that you are increasing the chance of the shorty going out by calling here. If you hit nut flush shorty out 99% of the time. Also you are probably 40%+ to beat the bigger-stacked player for the reasons stated in the OP so you are making a good cEV call which should in this spot be +tEV.
I like this call on the reasoning that you have 12 outs and have a good chance of winning the tournament if you win this pot. Someone tell me why I am wrong here.
Edit: Wow I missed that you have a gutshot too, this has to be a good call, no?
AcidReign
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